Lawyers in Canada: Davis LLP - Legal Advisors Since 1892

Global carbon market to soften according to Point Carbon

As reported by Carbon Finance, Point Carbon, a leading provider of news and analysis about the carbon market, predicts that the value of the global market will shrink by a third in 2009. They expect the aggregate value of carbon credits to drop to EUR62.6 billion, compared with EUR92 billion in 2008. This is despite a 20% increase in the volume of transactions, an increase which is not nearly as pronounced as the 80% and 200% growth levels seen in the two previous years.

Point Carbon summarizes their findings as follows: "2009 will see a levelling off from the massive growth seen in the carbon market so far. How long this 'breather' will last is, for the most part, a question of how long, and how deep, the recession will play out."

The EU ETS will continue to be the dominant market, with an expected 3.8 billion tonnes to be traded.

2009 will be a leaner year for CDM and JI projects. Primary market transactions are expected to plummet 45% to 300 million tonnes. Combined with a weak CER price, uncertainty about the post-Kyoto framework, and the dry credit markets, this decline may put many projects at risk. Secondary market CER trades are, however, expected to climb 12% to 1.4 billion tonnes.

The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the northeastern United States will expand to occupy just under 6% of the global market, with an expected trading volume of 339 million tonnes in 2009.

September 2008 Climate Change Law bulletin now available

Carbon offsets are no longer just a voluntary niche product in Canada. Rather carbon offsets are increasingly becoming a sought-after compliance tool for greenhouse gas emitters who are or will be regulated under provincial, federal and regional emission reduction initiatives. Many new offset projects will have to be implemented in Canada to meet this burgeoning demand. Companies with experience in a wide array of sectors including cattle farming, agriculture, forestry, bioenergy, waste management, methane capture, renewable energy, oil and gas, industrial processes, and transportation may be well poised to profit from this emerging market. Sophisticated regulated emitters may also be motivated to turn a compliance cost into a business opportunity by investing in offset projects. In a market whose scope will be determined by regulation, all market participants should consider taking advantage of immediate opportunities to influence the way that offsets will fit into provincial, federal, and regional emissions reduction initiatives. The September 2008 Climate Change Law bulletin discusses the opportunities to access and influence these emerging markets for carbon offsets.

WCI Draft Cap and Trade Design Prioritizes Forestry, Agriculture and Waste Management Offsets

Submitted by Grant Boyle

WCI’s July 2008 draft design recommendations suggest capped emitters will be able to use offset credits to meet 10% of compliance obligations.

Project types under “priority” consideration include: Agriculture (soil sequestration and manure management); Forestry (afforestation/reforestation, forest management, forest preservation/conservation, forest products); and Waste management (landfill gas and wastewater management).

According to the proposal, project types that reduce emissions covered by the cap-and-trade system ( such as electricity projects) would not be eligible to create offsets.

Starting in 2009 WCI Partners will coordinate to develop and approve standard protocols for the project types.

WCI Partners may approve and certify offset projects located throughout Canada, the United States, and Mexico, where projects are subject to comparably rigorous oversight, validation, verification and enforcement as those located within the WCI jurisdictions.

In the case of offset credits under the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the WCI Partners may establish “added criteria to ensure similar rigor to WCI approved/certified offset projects or other requirements”. The WCI Partners are also considering a method that restricts the use of offsets from projects located outside WCI jurisdictions for compliance purposes in the WCI.

Carbon markets boom

Posted by Andrew Lord

The voluntary market for carbon credits more than tripled in 2007 to USD $331 million, while the much larger regulated market more than doubled to USD $64 billion. Those are the conclusions of two significant carbon reports released last week.

Ecosystem Marketplace and New Carbon Finance released State of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2008 last week. The report notes that the volume of credits traded increased from 25 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2006 to 65 million tCO2e in 2007. The average price of a tonne of CO2 jumped by $2 to $6.10. However the price remained very volatile in 2007, ranging from $1.62 per tCO2e to about $300 per tCO2e. That volatility is a reflection of the perceived problems with the quality of some credits, a perception that the market tried to address by introducing a number of voluntary credit standards during the year.

Also released last week was the World Bank's State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008. This report focuses on the regulated carbon market, particularly the allowance market under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and the project market under the Kyoto flexibility mechansms (Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation). The value EU ETS trades, which comprised 78% of the overall regulated market, more than doubled to $50.4 billion, with the average price creeping up from just over $22 per tCO2e in 2006 to around $24.30 in 2007. In the project market, the big story in 2007 was the emergence of a strong secondary market for CERs. The value of trades in the secondary market increased by a factor of over 10 to $7.4 billion. The secondary market was largely occupied by aggregators who purchased a portfolio of CERs and sold guaranteed CERs backed by the portfolio and, in some case, credit-enhanced through the aggregators' banks. At about 28%, growth in the value of trades in the primary CDM market was strong, but not as vibrant as that in the secondary market.

US cap-and-trade inevitable - market could be worth $1 trillion

Submitted by Andrew Lord

Economic researchers at New Carbon Finance released a report this week estimating that the US will be home to a carbon market will be worth $1 trillion by 2020. The forecast assumes that the US will implement an economy-wide cap-and trade system within 4-5 years and that the system will be confined to domestic trading only.

Currently, the US House of Representatives and Senate are discussing 13 different climate change bills, most of which propose a market-based solution such a cap-and-trade system. It is likely that some version of one of these bills will be passed after the US presidential election. All three front-runners in the presidential race have declared their support for a mandatory cap-and-trade system. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama would like to see emissions reduced by 80% from 1990 levels by 2050. John McCain, who sponsored the McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act introduced in 2003, hopes to achieves a more modest reduction of 60% over the same period.

The impact of a cap-and-trade system is forecasted to be enormous. Researchers expect the carbon trading market to be worth about $1 trillion by 2020, more than twice the size of the EU ETS. This forecast is based on an estimated carbon price of $40 per tonne as early as 2015. A price of $40 per tonne is expected to raise the cost of electricity by 20%, of gasoline by 12%, and of natural gas by 10%.

The researchers noted however that the impact need not be so severe. All 13 bills currently under consideration share a common feature: they would limit the trading of emissions to the US only. They all restrict trading with other cap-and-trade systems, such as the EU ETS, and forbid participation in the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) projects. If the system permitted international trading and participation in CDM and JI projects, the price of carbon would be closer to $15 per tonne. A price of $15 per tonne would only raise the cost of electricity by 7%, of gasoline by 4%, and of natural gas by 5%.

The increasing likelihood that the US federal government will implement a cap-and-trade system will have repercussions both domestically and abroad. Domestically, a federal system could displace many initiatives that are already under way. For example, several states have already committed to participate in regional cap-and-trade systems, most notably the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the Northeast and the Western Climate Initiative in the West. Some states are also taking local action. For example, California intends to implement a cap-and-trade system for its electricity market.

Internationally, the leadership of the US could prompt other jurisdictions to implement similar programs. For example, Japan announced this week that it would study the feasibility of a cap-and-trade system, an idea that it had vehemently opposed in the past. US leadership abroad may not just be by good example: there is already talk of imposing trade sanctions on imports from countries unwilling to participate in mandatory emission caps.

It is almost certain that Canada will follow the lead of its neighbour to the south. The question is one of timing. The federal government may sit tight until the US makes its move. However, some provinces seem more restless. BC, for example, just announced a new carbon tax (see below) and is already a member of the Western Climate Initiative. Regardless of when the government makes its move, pro-active Canadian businesses should start planning for change now.