Ontario ratchets coal plant emissions cap down to 11.5 Mt beginning in 2011
The province of Ontario has lowered its voluntary cap on CO2 emissions from coal-fired generation to 11.5 megatonnes (Mt) for each of 2011 through 2014. While this cap is significantly lower than the cap of the past two years, it is not low enough for many environmentalists, particularly given the level of actual emissions last year.
The government of Ontario, through its Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure, is the sole shareholder of Ontario Power Generation ("OPG"). In that capacity, the government issued a shareholder directive to OPG on May 20 limiting the CO2 emissions from OPG's four coal-fired generating stations to 11.5 Mt per year. A previous directive in April 2008 set the limit for 2009 at 19.6 Mt and for this year at 15.6 Mt. The new limit established by the May 20th directive is therefore 41% lower than the 2009 limit and 26% lower than this year's limit.
However, the new limit is higher than actual emissions in 2009. According to OPG's 2009 Sustainable Development Report, 2009 emissions from coal-fired generation were about 10.1 Mt. The new cap of 11.5 Mt for 2011 and beyond is therefore 14% higher than actual emissions in 2009 (the Ontario Clean Air Alliance pegs the difference at 17% based on 2009 emissions of 9.8 Mt, although we have been unable to determine where they obtained the 9.8 Mt figure).
Several stakeholder groups are crying foul at a limit that exceeds recent historical emissions. The Ontario Clean Air Alliance characterized the decision in particularly harsh terms, saying, "Premier McGuinty's decision to permit Ontario Power Generation to increase the output of its dirty coal-fired power plants by 17% is a cynical betrayal of the public trust. To save lives, reduce asthma attacks and to help prevent dangerous climate change, Premier McGuinty should direct Ontario Power Generation to put its coal-fired power plants on standby reserve and only operate them if they are absolutely necessary to keep the lights on."
Neither the Premier's office nor the Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure have commented on the directive to OPG. However, we suspect that the decision to set the limit above 2009 emissions was informed by the economic downturn of the past year and a half. By setting the limit above 2009 emissions, the government may have intended to leave some generation capacity headroom to accommodate a bump in demand as the economy recovers.
However, it is curious that the limit flatlines at 11.5 Mt through 2014, when coal-fired emissions are to be phased out. We would have expected to see the cap continue to be reduced in the last 4 years of coal-fired generation in the province, particularly in the last couple of years when more and more Feed-in Tariff projects should be coming online.
In any event, OPG may continue its recent track record of keeping emissions significantly below its mandated limit.