When we were in the line-up for registration this morning, someone remarked to us "if climate change isn't real, why are all these people here".
Good question.
That climate change exists is certainly not in not in dispute at COP 15. What is in dispute is how the world is going to manage it. A couple of big names spoke today - Secretary-General of the UN, Bai Ki-moon and the Governor of California, Arnold Schwarzenegger both gave speeches.
Today marked the formal opening of the final high-level stage of the conference. All the world leaders who are attending the conference will be arriving in the next day or two.
Secretary General Bai Ki-moon said "[w]e know what we must do. We know what the world expects. Our job here and now is to seal the deal, a deal in our common interest," adding that the world's leaders face "a defining moment in history". The Secretary-General also said that "three years of effort have come down to three days of action. Let us not falter in the home stretch. No one will get everything they want in this negotiation". He labelled these negotiations as the "most complex and ambitious ever to be undertaken by the world community". If the attendance alone is any indicator, he's probably right.
What's interesting is that there is an expectation on the world leaders and national governments to solve the issue by themselves - legislate emissions reduction requirements, come to some sort of agreement by which each nation will have to abide. What about on a smaller scale? This was the focus of the speech Governor Schwarenegger gave today.
"The world's governments alone cannot make the kind of progress needed on global climate change, they need everyone working. They need the cities, the states, the provinces and the regions. They need the corporations, the scientists, the individuals to create the determination and action for movement".
"I believe technology and economic focus will overtake the politics and regulatory efforts of national governments," he said. "We are beginning on a historic great transformation, a new economic foundation for the 21st Century and beyond". He also commented that the conference was in danger of "talking grandly" but failing - but even if national governments fail to agree, he said the rest of the world must take action at a "sub-national level".
The foundation of these comments is that it's not just world governments which have resonsibility for addressing climate change - it's everyone. What are we doing at the provincial level in Canada for example? What are you doing in your own home?
So what are the negotiations really going to accomplish? We have three days left - the American President and the Canadian Prime Minister both arrive on Thursday for the last two days of the conference. Canada's positoin here continues to be a tough one and Canada was awarded another "Fossil of the Day" awards this evening for something or other. Canada is definitely not the belle of the climate change ball here.
In any event, is Bai Ki-moon's request going to be granted? Will the world leaders be able to "seal the deal". The Wall Street Journal doesn't seem to think that the chances of a new climate accord are "particularly good". It reported today:
"That's brought home by the latest draft agreement, which leaves for later pretty much everything that's controversial: How much to cut greenhouse-gas emissions globally and in each country; who will pay for all that and how much; how to verify what other countries are doing on emissions; how to square the climate deal with international trade agreements, and more. At the same time, the sniping among countries has gotten more intense. Developing countries such as China and India have long taken shots at the U.S. position on climate change. But instead of finding common ground, U.S. and Chinese negotiators have been trading barbs".
It still looks like China is not on board with the idea of being accountable for its emissions. I am going to start sounding like a broken record, but in order for any international agreement to be meaningful, China, India and the other developing nations must be accountable. Todd Stern, the U.S. Climate Change Envoy took aim at China's reluctance: "If we are going to have an international agreement, as opposed to a bunch of individual countries doing their own domestic thing, but an international agreement where countries come together to work together, then they [China] have got to be prepared to put what they are doing into that international agreement." That doesn't sound like the words of someone who's optimistic about finding a solution in the last three days of Copenhagen.
There's still a question of whether the Kyoto Accord will be ditched entirely or extended, there's still a question of what the international emissions target should be and there's still a quesiton of who is going to be held accountable. Is all that going to get sorted out in the next 72 hours?
Hmmm.
So, it's going to be an interesting next three days. Lots going on tomorrow. Keep checking in.
And by the way, no, I did not meet The Terminator.
